Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Three True Outcome Percentage: The Minnesota Twins Edition

Back in April I threw out a theory about baseball's three true outcomes and made an attempt to put them together in a single statistic with Three True Outcome Percentage

In that piece I focused on Adam Dunn and Barry Bonds, in an attempt to give a shining example of a three-true-outcomes hitter in Dunn and how a hitter's three-true-outcomes may change over the course of a career with Bonds.

I'd like to now take it up a notch to teams, starting with the Minnesota Twins, and perhaps look at major league baseball as a whole by season's end in an attempt to determine if Three True Outcome Percentage helps separate good offensive teams from bad.



Without further ado, here are the Three True Outcome Percentages for some of the Twins' most notable hitters so far in 2014.

First, a reminder of the formula: Strikeouts+Walks+Home Runs/Plate Appearances= Three True Outcome Percentage

Joe Mauer: .358 (30 strikeouts+21 walks+2 home runs/148 PAs)
Brian Dozier: .394 (34+28+9/180)
Kurt Suzuki: .177 (8+13+1/124)
Jason Kubel: .444 (45+13+1/133)
Josmil Pinto: .414(25+18+5/116)
Chris Colabello: .391 (46+9+4/151)

Trevor Plouffe: .362 (40+18+1/163)
Aaron Hicks: .454 (27+17+1/99)

Pedro Florimon: .338 (18+7+0/74)
Eduardo Escobar: .236 (13+3+1/72)

Total Team TTOP: .359 (339+165+27/1478)

Takeaways/Other Notes:

- Hicks team-leading TTOP is driven by 17 walks, and his is a case where the "eye test" shows he has a long way to go as a major league hitter

-Suzuki's production (.314, 25 RBI) is not reflected in his TTOP, but a mark below .200 may be a sign of looming regression

- Dozier's TTOP is far above his batting average (.236), but serves as a relative median between his on-base percentage (.361) and slugging percentage (.439)

- Colabello's TTOP, along with his other traditional numbers, may continue to drop unless he takes more walks

- I went with a minimum of 60 plate appearances for this list, so Danny Santana, Sam Fuld, Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia don't qualify at this point but may as the season goes on and the plate appearance minimum is adjusted

Now's the time where I solicit feedback from you, the reader(s). Is there a direction you'd like to see me go with Three True Outcome Percentage? Some historical context, comparing past players to each other? Current players or teams compared to each other? Maybe a little of both?

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I am a sportswriter based in Minnesota, and I contribute currently to a few sports related websites. I intend to use this blog to create visibility for my work.

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