Friday, November 7, 2014

Three True Outcome Percentage: Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano retired this week, prompting a column from me highlighting his 16-year major league career. 

Now I want to put Soriano through the formula for "Three True Outcome Percentage", to hopefully lend even more perspective on his career.

Once again, here's a reminder of the formula:

Home Runs+Walks+Strikeouts/Plate Appearances=Three True Outcome Percentage (TTOP)

Now Soriano's career numbers in the pertinent categories, plugged into the formula:

412 Home Runs+1,803 Strikeouts+496 Walks/8,395 Plate Appearances= .323 TTOP

Soriano's home run power and propensity to strike out drives his TTOP up, so it's no surprise he tops .300 even without a lot of walks.

Now I'll put some notable seasons of Soriano's career through the TTOP formula:

2001 With the New York Yankees:
18 Home Runs+125 Strikeouts+29 Walks/614 Plate Appearances= .280 TTOP
-This was Soriano's rookie season

2002 With the Yankees:
39 Home Runs+157 Strikeouts+23 Walks/741 Plate Appearances= .296 TTOP

2003 With the Yankees:
38 Home Runs+130 Strikeouts+38 Walks/734 Plate Appearances= .281 TTOP

2006 With the Washington Nationals:
46 Home Runs+160 Strikeouts+67 Walks/728 Plate Appearances= .375 TTOP
-Soriano set career-highs in all three categories in his lone season with the Nationals, while also becoming the fourth member of the 40/40 club (41 stolen bases)

2013 With the Chicago Cubs and the Yankees
34 Home Runs+156 Strikeouts+36 Walks/626 Plate Appearances= .361 TTOP
-Soriano's final full season, at age 37, was a great success in terms of his Three True Outcome Percentage.

Power hitters who strikeout a lot will always have a high TTOP. Soriano's career TTOP is close to Barry Bonds' (.385), but for various reasons the two hitters are probably not viewed in quite the same light.

Soriano, when looking at his career season-by-season, fits the predictability/projectionability attached to a high TTOP. Over 12 seasons from 2002-2013, Soriano hit at least 20 home runs in every season, with 30 or more seven times. His RBI total followed suit, with at least 70 11 times over the same stretch (100 or more four times)

Fantasy Football Week 10 Projection: Jay Cutler


Wednesday, November 5, 2014

The Chicago White Sox Should Trade SS Alexei Ramirez


Three True Outcome Percentage: Paul Molitor

It's been awhile since I did a post about Three True Outcome Percentage, or TTOP if you prefer to call it that. But the Minnesota Twins hiring of Hall of Famer Paul Molitor as their new manager this week inspired me to put his career through the formula I created.

As a reminder, here is the formula for Three True Outcome Percentage:
Home Runs+Strikeouts+Walks/Plate Appearance=TTOP

Now let's take a closer look at Molitor.

Paul Molitor's career TTOP:

234 Home Runs+1,244 Strikeouts+1,094 Walks/12,167 Plate Appearances=

Career Three True Outcome Percentage: .211

Since Molitor was not a power hitter who struck out or walked a bunch in any of his 21 seasons, it's no surprise that his TTOP is not great.

But Molitor's TTOP is actually far better than Tony Gwynn's. Gwynn, as you may recall based on a previous post, had a career TTOP of .133. The two Hall of Famers seem like comparable hitters in a lot of ways, but Molitor struck out close to three times more than Gwynn did (434 times) and he also walked a substantial amount more (790 walks for Gwynn).

Going through all 21 seasons of Molitor's career to determine his best TTOP seasons would be an arduous task, and it's one I may take on at some point. But in the interest of brevity, I'll highlight the seasons he had career-highs in the "three true outcome" categories and calculate his TTOP for those seasons.

1993 with the Toronto Blue Jays, Career-High 22 home runs

22 Home Runs+71 Strikeouts+77 Walks (Tied For Career-High)/725 Plate Appearances= .234 TTOP

1982 with the Milwaukee Brewers, Career-High 93 Strikeouts

19 Home Runs+93 Strikeouts+69 Walks/751 Plate Appearances= .241 TTOP

1991 with the Milwaukee Brewers, Career-High 77 Walks (Tied With 1993)

17 Home Runs+62 Strikeouts+77 Walks/752 Plate Appearances (Career-High)= .207 TTOP

It's no surprise that Molitor's career-high in home runs and one of the two seasons that he had his career-high for walks drove his TTOP up to a high level. But my educated guess is his 1982 season would stand as the highest TTOP of his career, with 19 home runs representing the second-best total of his career and the fact he only struck out more than 75 times in two other seasons (1985 and 1986),

Monday, September 15, 2014

Fantasy Football Week 3 Projection: Knile Davis


Matt Cassel Should Remain The Starter For The Minnesota Vikings


Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Week 3: Mohamed Sanu


Jayson Werth Was Kicked Out of the Washington Nationals Fantasy Football League


Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Fantasy Football Week 2 Injury Update: Cleveland Browns RB Ben Tate


Fantasy Football Week 2 Start or Sit: Alex Smith


Fantasy Football Week 2 Waiver Wire: Minnesota Vikings Defense


Fantasy Football Week 2 Projection: Tom Brady