What Is Devan Dubnyk's Market Value?

The acquisition of Devan Dubnyk in mid-January saved the Minnesota Wild's 2014-2015 season, as he went 27-9-2 with a 1.78 goals against-average, a .936 save percentage and five shutouts during the team's spectacular run to end the regular season. His play dropped off a bit in the playoffs though, including a 2.53 goals against-average and a .908 save percentage, and the Wild were swept by the Chicago Blackhawks in the second round.

Dubnyk will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, but it's basically a foregone conclusion that the Wild will re-sign him and give themselves some much-needed stability between the pipes. 

But what is Dubnyk's market value? What kind of a contract should the Wild look to sign him to?
Let's take a closer look.

The overall free agent market for goaltenders is not great this season, with Braden Holtby, Antii Niemi, Jonathan Bernier, Michal Neuvirth and Karri Ramo among the notable options that will also be available as unrestricted or restricted free agents. So it can be argued that Dubnyk is the top free agent goaltender this year, and presumably he'll have some suitors outside of the Wild.

Dubnyk seems willing to come back to Minnesota, and rightfully so since the marriage of player and team worked out so well for both sides. To see him seriously entertain offers from other teams would be a surprise, but of course we should never say never.

Here's a sampling of goaltenders around the NHL, with the details of the contracts they are playing under or soon will be playing under.

Corey Crawford, Chicago Blackhawks, Age: 30
Contract: Six years, $36 million (through 2019-20)

Jonathan Quick, Los Angeles Kings, Age: 29
Current Contract: 10 years, $58 million (through 2022-23)

Jimmy Howard, Detroit Red Wings, Age: 31
Current Contract: Six years, $31.75 million (through 2018-19)

Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins, Age: 30
Upcoming Contract Extension: Four years, $23 million (2015-16 through 2018-19)

Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning, Age 28
Upcoming Contract Extension: Two Years, $11.9 million (2015-16 through 2016-17)

Quick is clearly the outlier here, followed closely by Crawford, due to the length of their contracts and their acumen as playoff-proven, Stanley Cup-winning goalies. 

Among the five goaltenders I cited, Bishop stands out as the best comp for Dubnyk, and I expect there would be few that are dramatically better if I had a larger sample. Bishop is roughly six months younger than Dubnyk, and he has played 170 regular season games while starting 159 over some part of six NHL seasons (121 starts over the last two regular seasons).Over six seasons himself, Dubnyk has played in 231 regular season games and started 213 (85 starts over the last two regular seasons). 

In an April column, Charlie Walters of The St. Paul Pioneer Press suggested Dubnyk would end up with a two-year, $7 million contract extension from the Wild. Close to a month later that still seems like a solid estimate, with Dubnyk's failure to stand out in the playoffs likely to have cost him some money and perhaps a year or two in a new contract. But I could see the Wild being willing to go as far as three or four years at somewhere close to the same rate per year ($3.5 million), if only to give themselves a longer window of perceived stability in-goal.