Three True Outcome Percentage: Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano retired this week, prompting a column from me highlighting his 16-year major league career. 

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Now I want to put Soriano through the formula for "Three True Outcome Percentage", to hopefully lend even more perspective on his career.

Once again, here's a reminder of the formula:

Home Runs+Walks+Strikeouts/Plate Appearances=Three True Outcome Percentage (TTOP)


Now Soriano's career numbers in the pertinent categories, plugged into the formula:

412 Home Runs+1,803 Strikeouts+496 Walks/8,395 Plate Appearances= .323 TTOP

Soriano's home run power and propensity to strike out drives his TTOP up, so it's no surprise he tops .300 even without a lot of walks.

Now I'll put some notable seasons of Soriano's career through the TTOP formula:

2001 With the New York Yankees:
18 Home Runs+125 Strikeouts+29 Walks/614 Plate Appearances= .280 TTOP
-This was Soriano's rookie season

2002 With the Yankees:
39 Home Runs+157 Strikeouts+23 Walks/741 Plate Appearances= .296 TTOP

2003 With the Yankees:
38 Home Runs+130 Strikeouts+38 Walks/734 Plate Appearances= .281 TTOP

2006 With the Washington Nationals:
46 Home Runs+160 Strikeouts+67 Walks/728 Plate Appearances= .375 TTOP
-Soriano set career-highs in all three categories in his lone season with the Nationals, while also becoming the fourth member of the 40/40 club (41 stolen bases)

2013 With the Chicago Cubs and the Yankees
34 Home Runs+156 Strikeouts+36 Walks/626 Plate Appearances= .361 TTOP
-Soriano's final full season, at age 37, was a great success in terms of his Three True Outcome Percentage.

Power hitters who strikeout a lot will always have a high TTOP. Soriano's career TTOP is close to Barry Bonds' (.385), but for various reasons the two hitters are probably not viewed in quite the same light.

Soriano, when looking at his career season-by-season, fits the predictability/projectionability attached to a high TTOP. Over 12 seasons from 2002-2013, Soriano hit at least 20 home runs in every season, with 30 or more seven times. His RBI total followed suit, with at least 70 11 times over the same stretch (100 or more four times)